
This is a rematch of last year’s championship series. Will it come down to a rematch of Dodgers closer Jonathon Broxton versus Phillies pinch-hitter Matt Stairs? If Phillies closer Brad Lidge can stay on track, the Phillies will be in good shape. The Dodgers are seeking redemption after losing last year in the NLCS. The Dodgers also have home-field advantage with home games in Games 1, 2, 6, and 7.
This series is evenly matched. Both teams are very good defensively, though the Dodgers give up some defense when Ronnie Belliard is in the lineup over Orlando Hudson at second base. Both teams can pitch. The Phillies starting rotation has been its strong suit since acquiring Cliff Lee. The Dodgers rotation had been a question mark, though against the Cardinals, they were impressive (except for Randy Wolf). The Phillies bullpen has been a weakness all season though collectively pitched well in the NLDS. They need to get Ryan Madson back on track, while keeping Lidge steady. The Philadelphia Phillies have decided to go with 11 pitchers in the NLCS, so as to add an extra hitter off the bench. The Phillies added Chan Ho Park (who has been out with an injury) and lost Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick. They will also have Joe Blanton and JA Happ available out of the bullpen for Games 1 & 2. The Dodgers bullpen has been one of the best in the league. Add in starter Chad Billingsley and it makes them better. The Dodgers starters need only go 6 innings with the backend reliever combination of Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Broxton. Both teams hit. The Dodgers have speed and power, with Rafael Furcal and Matt Kemp at the top followed by Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and James Loney. The Phillies also have speed and power, with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino at the top followed by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez (who is heating up at the right time). The Phillies need Rollins to snap out of his season long slump that he has carried into the postseason. Both teams have veterans off the bench: the Dodgers have Mark Loretta (NLDS Game 2 hero), Jim Thome, and Juan Pierre, and the Phillies have Stairs, Gregg Dobbs, Eric Bruntlett (just added to the NLCS roster), and Miguel Cairo. Both teams have experienced managers: the Dodgers have Joe Torre and all his experience with the NY Yankees and the Phillies have Charlie Manuel and his 2008 World Series ring. This is a series I see taking seven games to crown a National League Champion.
Game 1: Cole Hamels @ Clayton Kershaw
Hamels has been dominant against the Dodgers in his career (4GS, 2-0, 1.50 ERA) and at Dodger Stadium (16 GS, 3-4, 1.83 ERA). However, the Dodgers have hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handers this year. Kershaw has been dominant at home this year (2 GS, 1-0, 1.12 ERA), though he hasn’t had success against the Phillies in his career (4 GS, 0-3, 6.64 ERA). Kershaw will need to be dominant against the lefty heavy Phillies lineup.
Game 2: Pedro Martinez @ Vicente Padilla
Pedro hasn’t pitched since September 30th and that was only a 4 inning outing. The coaches indicate that Pedro looked good in his bullpens and that he could throw anywhere from 70-100 pitches Friday night. Pedro wasn’t so confident, at least in his comments: “I threw on the side and in the bullpen, but that’s not enough,” he said. My two innings of BP were a little bit erratic, wild a little bit.” So he doesn’t think he was sharp. Padilla was sharp in his Game 2 NLDS start against the Cardinals, going seven shutout innings. In his ten previous regular season starts, Padilla didn’t go more than 6 innings. This should be an interesting game between 2 veterans with something to prove.
Game 3: Cliff Lee vs. Huroki Kuroda
Lee was masterful in his first two career playoff starts (both in the NLDS against the Rockies). Kuroda has been out since September 28th with a neck injury. If the weather is cold in Philly, this could hinder Kuroda’s effectiveness. Torre seemed confident in Kuroda’s outings in hot Arizona in an instructional league game.
Game 4: Joe Blanton/JA Happ vs. Randy Wolf
This start comes down to who doesn’t get used as much out of the bullpen for the Phillies. Happ only pitched once against the Dodgers in 2009 and that was 2/3 of an inning in relief. Blanton made one start against the Dodgers in 2009, pitching six innings and giving up just one run on five hits. Wolf, who pitched well in the second half for the Los Angeles Dodgers but struggled in the NLDS against the Cardinals, is familiar with pitching in hostile Philly. Wolf hasn’t faired well against the Phillies this year, at least against the right-handed hitters and at Dodger Stadium. The left-handed hitting Phillies have yet to score a run against him, with just one hit and nine strikeouts. Wolf won his start at Citizens Bank Park, going 6 innings while giving up just one run on three hits and striking out eight.
Key Matchups:
Jayson Werth vs. the Dodgers lefty relievers: Werth had 14 HR in 2009 against left-handed pitching with a .302 batting average. He also walked more than he struck out (37 BB/ 33 K). He will be key hitting between lefties Howard and Ibanez. Sherrill faced right-handed hitters in 17.2 innings with a 1.02 ERA, allowing 15 hits and 2 runs. He walked 9 and struck out 10. Kuo faced right-handed hitters in 20.1 innings allowing 16 hits and 7 runs with a 3.02 ERA. He walked 7 and struck out 16.
Clayton Kershaw vs. the Phillies left-handed hitters (Utley, Howard, Ibanez): Versus lefties this season, Kershaw has 41.1 innings pitche
d, giving up 24 hits and 10 runs (1 HR), with 11 BB and 72 K. Utley hit .288 against lefties with 11 HR, 14 doubles, and 33 RBIs. He also had 35 walks and only struck out 37 times. Howard only hit .207, with 6 HR, 13 doubles, and 33 RBIs. He walked 25 times, but struck out 83 times. Ibanez hit .285 with 13 HR, 10 doubles, and 40 RBIs. He walked 16 times and struck out 41 times. It will be key for Kershaw (and the other left-handed pitchers) to neutralize these Philly lefties in order to advance to the World Series. These Philly left-handed hitters will need to produce in order for the Phillies to advance.
Tags:
Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Huroki Kuroda, JA Happ, Jayson Werth, Joe Blanton, LA Dodgers, NLCS, Pedro Martinez, Philadelphia Phillies, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla
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