The Minnesota Twins fought hard just to make the playoffs, finishing off the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night in 12 innings to win the AL Central crown. It took 163 games for the Twins, only for them to fly out to New York that same night to face the New York Yankees the following day. The Yankees are one of the best hitting and pitching teams in the American League. Oh and they’re all well-rested.
The Yankees have 7 players with at least 20 + homeruns (Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and Jorge Posada). The Twins had to use virtually everyone in their bullpen to pull off their win over the Tigers in game 163 and used their top three in the staring rotation in their last three games. Finesse pitchers, which are what the Twins’ rotation is, do not thrive well at new Yankee Stadium. The Twins will send rookie lefthander Brian Duensing to the mound in the ALDS opener against CY Young hopeful C.C. Sabathia.
Game 1: C.C. Sabathia vs. Brian Duensing
Game 2: A.J. Burnett vs. Nick Blackburn
Game 3: Andy Pettitte @ Carl Pavano
A key matchup late in the game will be Twins left-handed power hitter Jason Kubel versus Yankees left-handed reliever Phil Coke. Kubel is 0-for-4 against Coke this year. Coke is Girardi’s most trusted lefty reliever. In 36.1 innings against left-handed hitters, Coke has 32 strikeouts, with just 24 hits allowed.
Twins Strengths:
*The bullpen: The bullpen proved great in Game 163, pitching 6 innings and allowing just two runs on six hits. Closer Joe Nathan has been just as solid as Mariano Rivera, though he doesn’t get much press coverage. The additions of lefty Ron Mahay and righty Jon Rauch has been welcome to a bullpen that had struggled early in the year.
*The middle of the order: With the loss of Justin Morneau for the season, many (including myself) thought that the Twins season was over. However, the middle of the order has stepped up around MVP candidate Joe Mauer. Jason Kubel and Delmon Young were co-players of the week for this past week, carrying the Twins into the postseason. Michael Cuddyer has had his best season yet, especially in terms of the power (32 HR, 94 RBI), while also playing adequate defense at first base.
*The Metrodome: If the Twins can split the first two games in NY, their home crowd will be loud and will be trying to carry the Twins into the League Championship Series. As Harold Reynolds of MLB Tonight always states, the Metrodome is the greatest home-field advantage in sports.
Twins Weaknesses:
*The rotation: This is especially true after having to fight to make the playoffs and using their top three just to get in. Nick Blackburn has been great as of late, as has ace Scott Baker. Carl Pavano has revived his career since joining the Indians/Twins this season after leaving NY. Rookie Brian Duensing has often been overlooked but won’t be in Game one. The rotation has been inconsistent, with one great game followed by a bad game. They need to step it up to beat the mighty Yankees lineup. With the offense mainly being a scratch and claw type, there will be pressure for the young starters to go deep and put up zeros.
*The season series: When the playoffs start, everyone says to throw out the numbers and everything that happened in the regular season. It is hard to overlook the fact that the Yankees beat the Twins 7-0 in the season series, with the Twins only scoring more than 5 runs in a game once. The Yankees, on the other hand, only scored less than 5 runs twice.
*The energy factor: The White Sox played the play-in game last year, only to be swept by the Rays in the divisional series. Did the Twins use up all of their energy just to get into the playoffs? Or are they more like the 2007 Rockies, who carried the play-in game momentum into the World Series?
Twins Key Players:
*Carlos Gomez: Gomez is a late inning replacement for Jason Kubel, bringing speed and great defense to the outfield. He also brings an added dimension late in the game-pressure on the base paths on opposing pitchers and catchers.
*Ron Mahay from the left side and Jon Rauch from the right side: These two relievers were the big acquisitions late in the season for the Twins. Both can pitch everyday and can get any team’s biggest lefty/righty threats out. Mahay, in 15 games versus left-handed hitters, had a 1.42 ERA, holding them to a .208 average. Rauch is 5-1, with a 2.61 ERA against right-handed hitters. They will most likely bridge the gap to closer Joe Nathan.
Yankees Strengths:
*The offense (1-9): The Yankees have one of the most prolific offenses in baseball, and it starts with leadoff hitter Derek Jeter, an MVP candidate, and goes all the way down to number 9 hitter Melky Cabrera, who has been their most clutch hitter. The Yankees are first in runs scored in the American League, and they also hit a ton of homeruns as their ballpark is a bandbox.
*Clutch hitting: Nick Swisher, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, and Melky Cabrera don’t get all the limelight that the rest of the Yankees offense receives, but these four have been the most clutch hitters on the team. They also have fun doing it.
*Mariano Rivera: How many teams in the playoffs have a closer as consistent as Rivera? None, and all of the teams wish they did. Rivera hasn’t been as lights out as in the past, but come playoff time, he is dangerous.
*Days off: By choosing the Wednesday start for Game one, the Yankees allowed for a possibility of three days off in the first round. This allows for manager Joe Girardi to only have to use three starting pitchers (Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte) and be able to use the same pitchers out of the bullpen in three straight games (like Phil Hughes and Rivera), without worrying about overuse.
Yankees Weaknesses:
*Starting pitching: With choosing the extra day off format, the Yankees chose not to use Joba Chamberlain in the rotation. So, what was the point of the “Joba Rules” at the end of the season to limit his innings if he’s barely going to pitch in the first week of the playoffs? Sabathia has not had success in the playoffs. Last year’s failure could be because of his overuse down the stretch for the Brewers before reaching the playoffs. However, he did not have good numbers while with the Indians. In 5 postseason starts, Sabathia has an ERA of 7.92. That needs to change if the Yankees intend on getting past the Twins. Burnett has been inconsistent throughout the season and Girardi is hoping that having backup Jose Molina catching him will help. Burnett also has no playoff experience (he missed the Marlins run to the World Series title in 2003 due to injury). Pettitte has had health issues late in this season, though he is known as a big game pitcher.
*The bridge to Mo: Phil Hughes has become that bridge in the 8th inning, after taking over for Brian Bruney. However, Hughes is new to the bullpen and the late innings. How will he adapt to the pressures of pitching in the playoffs and getting the lead to Rivera?
*Pressure: The Yankees feel the pressure of playing in NY everyday. The playoffs are different, especially when they weren’t there last year and haven’t won a World Series since 2000 and haven’t been in the World Series since 2003.
Yankees Key Players:
*Phil Hughes: Hughes has been great since moving to the bullpen and gaining manager Joe Girardi’s confidence to use him in the 8th inning to be the bridge to closer Mariano Rivera. As a reliever, Hughes is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 65 Ks. He has only pitched 2.1 innings of relief against the Twins in 2009, allowing just one hit, while striking out two.
*Brett Gardner: The Yankees have their own speed and defense guy off of the bench. Gardner could be a defensive replacement for Swisher late in the game or pinch-run for Matsui.
Tags:
Alex Rodriguez, American League, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Detroit Tigers, Hideki Matsui, Jason Kubel, Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada, Justin Morneau, Mark Teixeira, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano
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