Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller, Florida Marlins (LHP): Miller made his Major League debut quickly (2006 as a reliever with the American League Champions) with the Detroit Tigers after dominating in college at the University of North Carolina (he was the sixth overall pick in the 2006 draft). He and outfielder Cameron Maybin were the two big prospects sent to the Florida Marlins in the 2007 Dontrelle Willis/ Miguel Cabrera deal, but so far neither has panned out. Miller has always struggled with control and Major League hitters are more patient than collegiate or minor league hitters.

At 6-foot-7, Miller has a high ceiling, especially with a blazing fastball in the upper 90s. All of his pitches are electric in terms of movement when they are in the strike zone. Still just 24, the Marlins have shown patience and believe he could become a top-tiered starter and a fixture in their rotation. Miller understands he needs to find consistency. “It’s basically up to me at some point to show I can find consistency in that potential…At some point, it’s up to me to show that I’ve deserved it (the opportunities)-that I’ve put it to use and I’m running with it.”

In his first two seasons with the Marlins, Miller has dealt with nagging injuries and inconsistencies. He is aware that his numbers are disappointing. He went 3-5 with a 4.84 ERA in 2009. He was projected to be in the rotation (he made 14 starts) though he made six relief appearances. Miller could not establish a rhythm and he was sent to Triple-A New Orleans in July where he had more trouble. Due to lost time, he was sent to the Arizona Fall League to refine his delivery.

One of the adjustments Miller has made while working with new pitching coach Randy St. Claire (the former Washington Nationals pitching coach) is lowering his arm slot. The Marlins have three open spots in its rotation so Miller will have every opportunity to win a job. If not, he will come out of the bullpen or be optioned to the Triple-A rotation. The key for Miller is to stay consistent and to stay healthy. If he can do that, Miller could be a dominant force in a division full of dominant left-handed hitters.

Kris Medlen

Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves, (RHP): Medlen was rushed to the majors in 2009 when Tommy Hanson was not ready and Jo-Jo Reyes was struggling. Though he struggled through his first two starts, he notched his first big league win on May 31^st and moved to the bullpen for the remainder of the season (he did make another spot start). This is where Medlen found his comfort zone. In 26 appearances after the All-Star break, he posted a 2.80 ERA and opponents hit just .246 against him. “He really came on strong,” manager Bobby Cox said. “He had more strikeouts than innings pitched and less hits [than innings pitched] in his very first year.” Medlen struck out 72 in 67.2 innings and allowed just 5 homeruns.

The 5-foot-11 Medlen has been overshadowed by his 6-foot-6 red-headed rookie teammate and friend Tommy Hanson. While he did not receive the same notoriety as Hanson, he does not mind as him and Hanson are living together in Atlanta. The role for Medlen could be more important in 2010 as the Braves traded Javier Vazquez, which depleted their pool of big league starters. “I think it’s just going to be the same as last year with my role,” Medlen said. “I think last year, towards the end of the year, I felt I established myself.”

Even though Medlen is comfortable in his role, he did not plan on going to spring training with an assumption that he will land a spot in the bullpen. His plan is to go to camp with something to prove, just as he did in 2009. “I was an under-the-radar prospect, and there wasn’t much attention on what I was doing,” Medlen said. Medlen made his first 2010 spring training appearance in the Braves spring opener following Hanson yesterday. He pitched two shutout innings against the NY Mets. The Braves may need Medlen more in 2010 than they did in 2009 and he seems to be up to the challenge. Then he might not be overshadowed.

Tags:

Andrew Miller, Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, Kris Medlen, NL East, Tommy Hanson

There are quite a few pitchers who have signed minor league contracts with invitations to spring training that could make an impact on their teams’ 2010 season. Pitcher Shawn Estes has not been seen from in the big leagues since 2008 when he was pitching for the San Diego Padres. However with his new training program (Xtreme Training) that consists of weights, jogging, aerobics, boxing, pushups and situps conducted in 100-degree heat, Estes is in the best shape of his life and could surprise a lot of people. He just needs to get innings in spring training and make the most of it. Estes will make $600,000 with a possible $400,000 more in performance incentives if he makes the Washington Nationals 40-man roster. He pitched with the LA Dodgers in Triple-A Albuquerque in 2009 (3-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 starts) but semi-retired in June because he was not ready to play mentally. Estes’ best year came in 1997, his All-Star season, when he went 19-5 with a 3.18 ERA with the SF Giants.

Jeff Weaver returns to the Dodgers

Jeff Weaver re-signed with the Dodgers on an $800,000 minor league contract. Last year he was a pleasant surprise as a swingman for the Dodgers. Weaver went 6-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 28 appearances (7 starts). He struck out 64 in 79 innings, though he did walk 33 batters. In 2009, coming off of right should surgery that kept him from pitching in 2008, Weaver signed the same type of deal but did not make the team out of spring training. However, the Dodgers fifth starter’s spot is up for grabs along with the long man in the bullpen, so Weaver will have every opportunity to win a spot in LA.

Veteran left-handed reliever Ron Villone just re-signed with the Washington Nationals. In 2009, he appeared in 63 games going 5-6 with a 4.25 ERA. Villone has a shot because the Nationals bullpen is filled with unproven arms. Villone had a 2.63 ERA against left-handed hitters in 24 innings while allowing just 2 homeruns. As one of manager Jim Riggleman’s favorite players, it really was no surprise that Villone was brought back. Villone leads by example, wants the ball everyday despite his age (39), and he watched the game from the dugout after his outings instead of heading to the clubhouse like most pitchers.

The Florida Marlins just signed the top free agent relief pitcher left on the market Thursday. Mike MacDougal signed a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. He will make $650,000 if he makes the teams and can ask for his release if he does not make the Marlins big league roster. For the Marlins to compete in the National League East, they need depth in the bullpen and an option if Leo Nunez struggles as the closer. MacDougal is that option.

Eric Gagne returns to the Dodgers

Reliever Eric Gagne is returning to the team in which he had the most success, the LA Dodgers. He won the NL CY Young in 2003 and converted 84 straight saves (an all-time record). He often single-handedly kept Dodgers fans in their seats because Dodgers fans are known to arrive late for games and leave early before they are over. However they stayed to watch “Game Over” Gagne, who entered the field to the Guns N’ Roses song “Welcome to the Jungle.” Elbow surgery in 2005 spiraled his career downward but his inclusion in the same Xtreme Training that Estes has participated in has him in great shape. Gagne will make $500,000 if he makes the club and another $500,000 in performance incentives, though he was an out clause if he does not make the team. Though the Dodgers bullpen is stocked with back-of-the-bullpen arms like Jonathon Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Ronald Belisario, Gagne made it known that he wanted to return to LA.

Tags:

Eric Gagne, Florida Marlins, Jeff Weaver, LA Dodgers, Mike MacDougal, Ron Villone, Shawn Estes, Washington Nationals

Mike MacDougal with the Nationals

Now lets look at some of the pitchers still on the free agent market, beginning with a couple of relievers. Mike MacDougal thrived in 2009 after joining the Washington Nationals in about the middle of the season. He was a welcome surprise to a bullpen that was downright awful in 2009. He took over as closer not too long after his promotion from Triple-A Syracuse and went 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in 52 games. He walked 31 and struck out 31 while opponents hit .247 against him. He thrived with his new team (after being released by the Chicago White Sox) until a hip injury which required surgery in the offseason. At the end of the season, the Nationals praised him and said he would be their closer in 2010. However they then declined his option citing his hip surgery and his inconsistencies at the end of the season due to the hip injury. Now he is disappointed and looking for a new team.

MacDougal has always been an enigma (even in the minor leagues) as he has a blazing fastball but has yet to harness it (thus the high walk totals along with wild pitches). MacDougal has the ability to close and would look good with the St. Louis Cardinals (who always need bullpen help) and pitching coach Dave Duncan may be able to iron out his violent delivery (has anyone ever seen his hat fly off after a pitch?). The Philadelphia Phillies showed interest but instead signed Danys Baez (who did not pitch well in his tenure with the Baltimore Orioles) and the NY Mets seem interested to find someone to set-up for closer Francisco Rodriguez.

Kiko Calero with the Marlins

The other reliever is Kiko Calero. Calero has quietly developed into one of the best relievers in the game. Injuries to his throwing shoulder over the last few years (he missed virtually all of 2008 as he pitched in just five games while with the Oakland A’s and spent three weeks on the DL in 2009) have teams a little concerned and the injuries have set his career back a bit. However, when healthy, Calero is better than many of the relievers who have received multi-year and multi-million dollar contracts (like Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom, Brian Fuentes, and Fernando Rodney). Calero only throws 86-89 with his fastball but mixes it well with a devasting low 80’s slider. He has always shown the ability to miss bats with his pitches and avoid the homeruns. Calero spent the 2009 season with the Florida Marlins as their best reliever and went 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA in 67 games (and the 60 innings was a career high). He walked 30 and struck out 69 while only allowing 1 homerun. Opponents hit just .180 against him. In January, the Chicago Cubs were reportedly negotiating with him and the SF Giants have also shown interest. A return to the St. Louis Cardinals (where he made his Major League debut and went a World Series in 2004) is also foreseeable. Calero is looking for a two year contract, which may be why he has not been signed yet.

Tags:

Florida Marlins, Kiko Calero, Mike MacDougal, Washington Nationals

Justin Verlander

Can the SF Giants or Detroit Tigers afford to go to an arbitration hearing with Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander? If the two teams do, they will break the bank. Then they will have to go through it all over again next year. Why not sign the two aces to extensions to avoid what comes with an arbitration hearing? Verlander, the Tigers ace and American League strikeout leader, has said that the Tigers have not approached him about a long-term deal so he is prepared for an arbitration hearing where he is requesting $9.5 million but the Tigers have only offered $6.9 million. The Tigers are said to want to reach a one-year agreement to avoid arbitration before discussing a long-term deal, which would be a similar strategy they used with first baseman Miguel Cabrera. If the case reaches arbitration, Verlander may win, considering Boston’s closer Jonathon Papelbon signed a one-year deal worth $9.35 million. If no long-term deal is reached, Verlander will become a free agent in two years and he will go to the highest bidder (think Yankees or Red Sox).

Tim Lincecum

Lincecum’s case is intriguing and he will most likely win if it goes to a hearing. Lincecum is special, just as Ryan Howard’s case was special when he was awarded the most lucrative arbitration contract ($10 million) because no one has put up the numbers he has so far in his career. Lincecum is special because he has won back-to-back CY Young awards in the National League in just his first three years. Lincecum made just $650,000 in 2009 and is asking for $13 million, while the Giants are offering $8 million. In his two CY Young seasons, Lincecum is 33-12 with a 2.55 ERA overall in those two years. He is 40-17 with a 2.90 ERA overall in his career. Why wouldn’t the Giants want to lock Lincecum up to a long-term deal? Both sides would want to avoid arbitration because the hearing will just be a bashing of both sides (think Lincecum’s drug arrest and how Lincecum is the face of the franchise). Lincecum has three more years of arbitration before he becomes a free agent. By the end of his arbitration years, Lincecum could be making around $20 million a year. It would be beneficial for both sides to sign an extension and then Giants could keep one of the game’s best pitchers in San Francisco.

A few teams have done this with their aces, as the Seattle Mariners locked up Felix Hernandez for five years and the Florida Marlins locked up Josh Johnson for four years. Both young aces are the faces for the future of their respective organizations. The Philadelphia Phillies also locked up two players, starting pitcher Joe Blanton and centerfielder Shane Victorino for three years each. The deal for the Flying’ Hawaiian makes sense because he is an integral part of the Phillies offense and defense. The Blanton extension is a little confusing because he is only a number four starter and really only pitches well in the second half. Blanton is going to be receiving a lot of money when the Phillies could have just kept left-handed starter Cliff Lee.

Tags:

Detroit Tigers, Felix Hernandez, Florida Marlins, Joe Blanton, Josh Johnson, Justin Verlander, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, SF Giants, Shane Victorino, Tim Lincecum

Josh Johnson

Despite all the tradeoffs, manager Fredi Gonzalez put together a strong, talented, and young team that defied expectations yet again in 2009. 2010 should be no different. 2009 saw the Marlins boast another ROY winner in left fielder Chris Coghlan, who sparked the Marlins in the leadoff spot (.321 and led the majors in hits after the All-Star break). Shortstop Hanley Ramirez put together an MVP-caliber season (led the NL in hitting at .342 with 24 homeruns and 106 RBIs) and outfielder Cody Ross proved clutch. Young ace Josh Johnson put together a CY Young type season (15-5 with a 3.23 ERA in 200+ innings and 191 strikeouts) despite struggling late in the season. However every part of the Marlins team was inconsistent all year. Emilio Bonifacio started out the season as the hottest guy on the planet but by the end of the year, he wasn’t even playing. Starter Ricky Nolasco could strike out 10+ hitters in one game and then give up 7 runs in his next start. The bullpen may have been the most inconsistent. Closer Matt Lindstrom just could not put it all together (partly due to injuries) and was traded away in this offseason. It just seemed like Gonzalez was trying to mix-and-match the pitchers in the pen to find some combination that could consistently get hitters out. Towards the end of the year the bullpen seemed to figure it out with contributions from veteran Brendan Donnelly (3-0, 1.78 ERA in 30 games with 9 BB/ 25 K), Brian Sanches (4-2, 2.56 ERA in 47 games with 51 Ks), lefty specialist Dan Meyer (3-2, 3.09 ERA in 71 games with 56 Ks), and Kiko Calero (2-2, 1.95 ERA in 67 games with 69 Ks and just 1 homerun allowed). Unfortunately Donnelly and Calero are free agents and Calero is highly sought after because of his dominant 2009 season.

If the Marlins can build off 2009 and play consistent baseball, 2010 could be the year they overtake the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East. The Marlins have a great young rotation and some exciting offensive players. It is just a matter of putting it all together before management trades the talent away. With a new ballpark coming in the near future, hopefully the firesales will begin to cease. Here’s the Marlins wish list:

1. Starting pitching: I know I mentioned that the Marlins have a great young rotation but they have yet to put it all together. With Randy St. Claire now on as the pitching coach, there is hope that 2010 may be the year. Ace Josh Johnson will be a full two years away from Tommy John surgery, so hopefully there won’t be any tiring in the second half. Ricky Nolasco was great in 2008 and showed glimpses of that in 2009, but spent time in the minors to get himself right. The rest of the rotation (Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, Sean West, Rick Vandenhurk, Andrew Miller, and Burke Badenhop) all spent time in the minors due to inconsistencies or injury. A veteran starter would take the pressure (and workload) off Johnson and the rest of the staff. Tim Redding, a Phillies nemesis, is on the free agent market and should be a target for the Marlins. Rumors have the Marlins offering a 5-year contract to Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, who has thrown 100mph in international competition.
2. 

   Leo Nunez struggles

   A closer: Closing out games was a major concern for the Marlins in 2009. They blew 24 saves in 2009. Matt Lindstrom was either hurt or ineffective. The Marlins are looking towards the slightly built Leo Nunez in 2010. Nunez accumulated 26 saves (out of 33 opportunities), but it took a 4.06 ERA to earn them. Nunez is hardly automatic. Another in-house option would be right-hander Brian Sanches, who closed in the minors the last few years and was very good. Finding a reliever with closer capabilities should be a priority if Nunez falters. Former Phillie Brett Myers fits that bill.

3. A left-handed bat: Early in the offseason, the Marlins traded outfielder Jeremy Hermida to Boston for pitching help. Hermida, who bats left-handed, never seemed to reach the high expectations placed on him. The only left-handed bats regularly in the Marlins lineup are Chris Coghlan and catcher John Baker. Third baseman Jorge Jimenez (a Rule V pick the Marlins received from the Lindstrom trade) is left-handed but will have to have a huge spring training to stick with the Marlins. The Marlins would love to get a left-handed power bat (maybe Matt Stairs won’t retire?).

Tags:

Brendan Donnelly, Brian Sanches, Chris Coghlan, Cody Ross, Dan Meyer, Emilio Bonifacio, Florida Marlins, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Kiko Calero, Leo Nunz, Matt Lindstrom, Ricky Nolasco