Can the Rockies Hold on?
Has the National League Wild Card Race become a race again? The Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, and San Francisco Giants sure hope so. Heading into Saturday’s games, the Colorado Rockies still held a 3.5 game lead over the Braves, and 5 games over both the Marlins and Giants. The Giants still believe they are in the Wild Card race, as evidenced by holding off on getting second baseman Freddy Sanchez knee surgery. The Braves believe they have a shot, as evidenced by not holding young starter Tommy Hanson back. Going into the final week of the regular season, the Rockies have allowed 3 other teams to hold out hope for the postseason.
The Rockies have struggled lately going 5-5 in their last ten, after being one of the hottest teams in baseball. The starting pitching, which was a strength during the hot streak, has cooled off. Jason Marquis, a potential CY Young hopeful at midseason, has only won once in his last 7 starts (1-4) and has seen his ERA rise to almost 4.00. Jorge De La Rosa has been inconsistent, one game pitching 8 shutout innings against the Giants and then the very next start only going into the 3rd inning giving up 6 runs to the San Diego Padres. Aaron Cook has been out since August 22nd with a right shoulder strain, though he returned Friday night to pitch 5 shutout innings against the Cardinals in a no-decision. Young starter Ubaldo Jimenez has been the surprise workhorse and has become the ace as of late. He’s won 7 out of his last 10, and has lowered his ERA to 3.47. The Rockies offense has also struggled, with a few key players battling injuries (Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Stewart, and Troy Tulowitzki). If the Rockies are going to survive the last week of the season and enter the postseason, they are going to have to overcome the toughest schedule out of the remaining Wild Card contenders and become consistent across the board. Colorado has 2 more at home with St. Louis, 3 at home with Milwaukee, and the final 3 at the Dodgers. The walk-off win Friday night against the Cardinals didn’t hurt.
The Braves have won four in a row and 8 out of 10. They have the deepest pitching staff of the playoff contenders, with Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, rookie Tommy Hanson, newly healthy Tim Hudson, and Javier Vazquez, who is quietly having a CY Young type season. Their bullpen is always a question mark, but if Pete Moylan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano can shut down the 7-8-9 innings, the Rockies are in trouble. The offense has been the most inconsistent for the Braves. They don’t have a ton of power and Chipper Jones is having a down year, but if shortstop Yunel Escobar comes up with men on base, be sure that they will score (he leads the NL in average with RISP). The Braves offense is built on gritty players like Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz, Brian McCann, and Martin Prado, and hoping that veterans Adam LaRoche, Chipper Jones, and Garrett Jones can drive them in. Atlanta has 2 more at Washington, 3 at home vs. Florida, and 4 at home with Washington.
The Marlins are young and gritty. It seems that every year they are wreaking havoc on the NL and this year is no exception. They have a young pitching staff led by CY Young candidate Josh Johnson, and an offense led by shortstop Hanley Ramirez, an MVP hopeful and soon-to-be batting champ. The only question is: can the Marlins sustain the success for an entire season? When they are going bad, they can’t beat anyone, but when they are going good, they can beat anyone. Florida has 2 more at home vs the Mets, 3 at Atlanta, and the final 3 at Philadelphia. Starting on Monday, they play the Braves in Atlanta to determine who will give the Rockies a run for the Wild Card going into the final weekend. The pitching matchups for the 3 games are:
Monday 9/28: Anibal Sanchez @ Jair Jurrjens
2-2, 4.15 ERA (4 starts) 4ER, 10H in 13 IP
vs. the Braves in 2009 vs. the Marlins in 2009
Tuesday 9/29: Rick VandenHurk @ Tim Hudson
0-0, 3.27 ERA (2 starts) 1-0, 3.39 ERA (1 start)
vs. the Braves in 2009 vs. the Marlins in 2009
Wednesday 9/30: Rickey Nolasco @ Javier Vazquez
1-0, 4.67 ERA (3 starts) 0-2, 5.68 ERA (4 starts)
vs. the Braves n 2009 vs. the Marlins in 2009
The Giants were so close not too long ago, but can the pitching staff carry them to the playoffs? As Mitch Williams said last night on MLB Tonight, the pitching staff has to pitch like a closer with no net; no one will pick them up. That puts tons of pressure on the entire pitching staff to put up zeros every inning to win a game. The pressure may also be felt on the lone consistent offensive force in the lineup, Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval. He has seen his average drop into the .320’s when it hovered in the .330’s for most of the season. But someone around him needs to start hitting. If Eugenio Velez and Andres Torres can get on base and Bengie Molina, Juan Uribe, and Aaron Rowand can drive them in, the Giants have a chance. The Giants have 2 more left against Chicago, 3 at home vs. Arizona, and 3 at San Diego. The Giants may have the easiest schedule left, but being 5 games out and if the offense cannot generate some support for Lincecum & Co., their postseason chances are slim to none.
I think the Colorado Rockies will hold onto the Wild Card and make the postseason, but this final week will be exciting.
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