Adam Wainwright has smoothly made the transition from World Series closer in 2006 to ace starting pitcher. Wainwright is tied for the lead in the majors with 18 wins and leads the NL in innings pitched.

In Wainwright’s last 10 starts, only once (against the Pirates) has he given up more than 2 runs (6-2 in that span).

He has been a workhorse for the Central division leading Cardinals and part of the 1-2 punch that has other playoff-bound teams quivering.

Chris Carpenter is the other ace of the Cardinals. Despite missing part of the 1^st half, Carpenter has 16 wins and an NL-leading 2.34 ERA. Carpenter bounced back from a horrible start against the Braves on 9/13 to shut out the Cubs for 8 innings on 9/19 (8IP, 8H, OR, 2BB, 4K). He is 7-1 in his last 10 starts, with 2 no-decisions.

Because Wainwright and Carpenter are both deserving of this award, they may pull votes from each other, opening the door for the Giants ace, Tim Lincecum. Lincecum, last year’s winner, has yet again put up gaudy numbers, which would be much better if the Giants offense was as good as the Cardinals or Phillies. Lincecum is a workhorse and leads the majors in strikeouts. He has recorded double-digits in strikeouts in 3 of his last 10 starts. Lincecum is 4-3 in his last 10 starts, with three no-decisions. He lost to the Phillies on 9/3, giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits and struck out 11 (he was out-dueled by Pedro Martinez). His last outing was one of his worst and shortest, but he had been dominant in his starts prior. These three pitchers have separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

Two sleepers for the CY Young are Matt Cain and Josh Johnson. Matt Cain forms the formidable 1-2 punch with Lincecum for the Giants. Cain has struggled as of late as his innings have increased well over what he has ever thrown and he’s amassed 4 complete games. Cain is 1-5 in his last 10 starts, with four no-decisions in which he only gave up a total of 9 runs. Josh Johnson is the hard-throwing who has emerged as the young ace for the Florida Marlins. Johnson, like Cain, has struggled lately as his innings have increased. Johnson is 5-3 in his last 10 starts, but has only gone more than 6 innings 3 times. However Johnson is still 15-5 with a 3.12 ERA.

Who should win: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

219 IP              18-8                 2.59 ERA         193 K/63 BB

1CG                 .243 AVG        16 HR allowed

Who will win: Wainwright or Tim Lincecum, SF Giants

211.1 IP           14-6                 2.47 ERA         247 K/63 BB(leads majors)

4 CG/ 2SHO    .208 AVG        10 HR allowed

OR

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

180.2 IP           16-4                 2.34 ERA (leads NL)   136 K/34 BB

3 CG/ 1 SHO   .227 AVG        7 HR allowed

It could go either way because all 3 have similar statistics, but Wainwright and Carpenter are leading the Cardinals to the playoffs, while Lincecum’s Giants are on the outside looking in. Lincecum won it last year on a losing team, but this year’s competition is a little better.

Sleepers: Matt Cain, SF Giants

204.2 IP           13-7                 2.99 ERA                     158 K/70 BB

4 CG                .235 AVG        22 HR allowed

Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins

199.1 IP           15-5                 3.12 ERA                     181 K/53 BB

2 CG                .235 AVG        13 HR allowed

*stats as of 9/23/09 from MLB.com

Is it Greinke’s fault he pitches for a last-place team, receives the lowest amount of run support in the league, and his bullpen usually implodes every time he exits? Yet he still has the lowest ERA in baseball (2.08). If he has an off-day and gives up 3 runs or more, he is guaranteed a loss. He has 8 no-decisions in which he gave up less than 3 runs in those starts. I’ve heard people say that he pitches in the AL Central and hasn’t faced the mighty AL East until last night in his start against the Red Sox (6IP, 2H, 0R, 3BB, 5K). C.C. Sabathia pitches for the NY Yankees and faces the mighty AL East. However, he is 4-1 against the last place Baltimore Orioles and has more innings pitched against the O’s than any other team. Pitching is pitching no matter what lineup you face and his numbers are better than the rest.

In the first half, the best two pitchers in the AL were Greinke and Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. Halladay has been so good that everyone wanted him at the trade deadline, but no one wanted to give up their farm system to get him. However, Halladay hasn’t been great since the rumors died off and he remained a member of the Blue Jays. Whether his struggles are mental or just wearing down, Halladay has struggled, especially against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he lost again on 9/20 after giving up 10 hits and 2 runs in 7 innings. Yes, Halladay has pitched against top teams, especially in his last 10 starts where he has faced the Yankees (2-1), Red Sox (0-2), and Twins (0-1) and threw 9 innings in 3 of those starts. But Halladay hasn’t seemed like his dominant self in the second half.

C.C. Sabathia of the NY Yankees has been a horse for the first-place Yankees, especially since the starting rotation has been in disarray with AJ Burnett’s inconsistencies, the “Joba Rules”, and the short starts of Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin. Everyone remembers Sabathia’s heroics last year for the Milwaukee Brewers, though he wore out in the playoffs. Sabathia has won 8 of his last 10 starts, but only beat Boston that is in playoff contention or over .500. Sabathia also receives a ton of run support with the Yankees offense being one of the best. On 8/20, Sabathia beat the Chicago White Sox but gave up 10 hits and 5 runs in 7 innings. Sabathia can struggle, yet still win the game.

Who should win: Zack Greinke, KC Royals

216.1 IP           15-8     2.08 ERA(leads AL)    229 K/47 BB

6 CG/ 3 SHO   .228 AVG        11 HR allowed

Who will win: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

221 IP(leads AL)         15-10               3.01 ERA         193 K/33 BB

7 CG/2 SHO(leads AL)                        22 HR allowed             .263 AVG

Receives 5.99 runs/game

OR

C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

220.1 IP           18-7(leads AL)            3.31 ERA         186 K/60 BB

2 CG/1 SHO    .232 AVG        18 HR allowed Receives 7.97 runs/game

Sleepers: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

216.1 IP          16-5                 2.45 ERA        196 K/64 BB

2 CG/1 SHO   .229 AVG       14 HR allowed  Receives 5.62 runs/game

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

201.1 IP          15-6                 3.80 ERA        187 K/51 BB

4 CG/2 SHO   .236 AVG       25 HR allowed

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

217.1 IP          16-9                 3.44 ERA        245 K/59 BB(leads AL)

3 CG/1 SHO   .242 AVG       20 HR allowed  Receives 6.09 runs/game

Scott Feldman, Texas Rangers

176.2 IP          17-5(12 road wins)      3.62 ERA        104 K/56 BB

0 CG/ 0 SHO  .241 AVG       17 HR allowed

*stats as of 9/23/09 from MLB.com