ALDS: LA Angels vs. Red Sox

American League
By Jen Nevius
October 9, 2009

los-angeles-dodgers-jpgIt always seems that the LA Angels and the Boston Red Sox are playing each other in the American League Divisional Series (3 out of the past 5). The Red Sox have been coming out on top and heading to the league championship series, despite the Angels dominance in the regular season.

The Angels have faced adversity all season long with the death of rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart and all of the injuries to its pitching staff, so facing the Red Sox is nothing different. The Red Sox have five players with 20+ homeruns (Jason Bay, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, JD Drew, and Victor Martinez), “Big Papi” is staging a comeback (.258, 16 HR, 52 RBI after the All-Star break), and the Red Sox hitters are extremely patient.

They also have Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the order who reeks havoc whenever he’s on the bases (70 SB). The Angels were second in the AL in runs scored, have their own speedster at the top of the order (Chone Figgins and his 42 stolen bases), and are just as patient 1-9 as the Red Sox. Their patience comes from offseason acquisition Bobby Abreu, one of the most patient hitters in the game and the team’s MVP.

The game-changing matchup of the series could be Los Angeles Dodgers lefty closer Brian Fuentes versus Red Sox lefty DH David Ortiz. Fuentes pitched in 19 innings against lefties, only giving up 2 runs on 17 hits. Fuentes isn’t intimidating as a closer and this matchup could make or break the series for the Angels. Ortiz is only hitting .212 against lefties this season with just 6 HR.

Game 1: John Lackey vs. Jon Lester
Game 2: Jered Weaver vs. Josh Beckett
Game 3: Scott Kazmir @ Clay Buchholz
Game 4: Joe Saunders @ Daisuke Matsuzaka

Angels Strengths:

*The offense 1-9: At one point late in the season, manager Mike Scioscia’s lineup boasted nine hitters all hitting .300 or better. Yes, some of those hitters have dropped below .300, but you can see why the Angels were second in the AL in runs scored (8 everyday hitters were hitting .290 or better at the end of the season). It starts at the top with the speed of Figgins and continues on through to the speed of Erick Aybar in the 9-hole. In between are patient hitters (except for the free-swinging Vladimir Guerrero) who can all drive the ball and produce run-scoring hits.

*Speed: Like I mentioned, the Angels have speed both in the leadoff spot and in the 9th spot with both Figgins and Aybar. Maicer Izturis, who normally bats in the 7th spot, can also run. The unexpected speed comes from veterans Bobby Abreu (30 SB) and Torii Hunter (18 SB). Since the Red Sox have such a hard time holding runners on and throwing attempting stealers out, the Angels could be off to the races.

*The rotation: Early in the season, the rotation was a big question mark. However, as the season has progressed, it has become a strong point. With the acquisition of Scott Kazmir from the Tampa Bay Rays and the healthy returns of John Lackey and Joe Saunders, they have bolstered around the already dominating Jered Weaver. Scioscia will be expecting a lot of innings out of these four workhorses.

*An “Angel” in heaven: In 2002, the Angels had the Rally Monkey. This year, they have the memory of Nick Adenhart. Many would say that what this team has overcome at the start of the season, they would be destined to win it all for Nick.

Angels Weaknesses:

*The bullpen: Closer Brian Fuentes ended the season with 48 saves, but with a record of 1-5 and an ERA of 3.93, he is hardly dominating. Fuentes pitched very well down the stretch, expect for a loss at Boston on 9/16. Jose Arredondo has not been able to duplicate his 2008 season (and may not make the playoff roster), thus the Angels have relied on Kevin Jepsen to set-up. Veteran Darren Oliver has been the steadying force in the Angels bullpen posting a 5-1 record with a 2.74 ERA. He also led the Angels bullpen in innings (69). The bullpen will have to be successful early, so as to not put all the pressure on the starters.

*Postseason failures against the Red Sox: 3 out of the past 5 divisional series the Angels have played the Red Sox. In 2004 and 2007, the Angels were swept by the Red Sox. Last year, the Angels lost in 4 games. The Angels will have to overcome all the past demons to make it past the Red Sox and into the championship series.

Key Players:

*Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar: Izturis and Aybar are probably the most underrated double-play combination in the big leagues. Both are quick, athletic, have strong arms, and are switch-hitters. Izturis has become more than just a sure defender at second base; his career average with runners in scoring position heading into the last weekend series was .327. Aybar got hot at the end of the season, raising his average to .312, while having a .328 average after the All-Star break. In the late innings, Aybar is hitting well over .300.

boston-red-jpg_0Red Sox Strengths:

*Big Papi: Last postseason, Big Papi disappointed and carried that into the 2009 season. However, he has been huge for the Boston Red Sox since the weather started to heat up in June. Big Papi has the ability to change a game with one swing of the bat and no matter how much he is struggling; he is the one guy no one wants to get beaten by.

*Beckett’s playoff experience: Josh Beckett was the World Series MVP in 2003 while carrying the Florida Marlins to an unexpected World Series title over the Yankees. He was also the ALCS MVP in 2007, leading the Red Sox into the World Series. The Red Sox need Beckett to pitch better than he has of late and be the playoff competitor he has been in the past.

*The offense: The Red Sox offense rivals the Yankees and Phillies in that 1-9 can hit the ball out of the ballpark (1-8 for the Phillies). The Red Sox bolstered their lineup by adding catcher Victor Martinez at the trading deadline. He provides yet another run-producing threat to a middle of the order that includes, Big Papi, Youkilis, Lowell, Bay, and Drew. The Red Sox were 3rd in the AL in runs scored and homeruns, and 4th in batting average.

*The rotation: Until the end of the season, the rotation was a major strength. Jon Lester was dominant, as was Beckett, and Buchholz was pitching the way many had predicted. Matsuzaka came back and pitched excellent. However, Beckett missed a start with back spasms and Buchholz imploded in his final 2 starts. If the top three can pitch the way they had when they were dominating, this series could be pitchers’ duels.

Red Sox Weaknesses:

*Throwing out runners: This has been a problem for the Red Sox in the past and has only gotten worse this season. Captain Jason Varitek only threw out around 8% of base stealers, while new addition Martinez only threw out around 11% after joining the Red Sox. You can’t blame it all on the catchers if the pitchers aren’t doing their job of holding runners on, but if they want to beat the Angels, they’ll all have to do a better job. During the regular season, the Angels were successful in 15 of 17 stolen base attempts.

*Getting the ball to Papelbon: Closer Jonathon Papelbon is one of the best closers in the game, but this isn’t the Red Sox teams of the past where they had a consistent stream of relievers who were reliable about getting the lead to Papelbon. Manager Terry Francona has been handing the ball over to rookie reliever Daniel Bard. Billy Wagner has been good since coming over in a waiver claim from the Mets, but the rest have been inconsistent (Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito). Paul Byrd will be the long-man out of the bullpen and his numbers have been up and down since coming out of retirement.

*Back of the rotation: Tim Wakefield is out due to his lingering back and leg problems. Paul Byrd will be coming out of the bullpen. That leaves Dice-K as the 4th starter. During the first-half of the season, Dice-K was awful. Since coming back from the DL, he has been great, giving up 3 runs in a start just once. It has been a tale of two seasons. However, he only made 4 starts at the end of the year after being out since the middle of June.

Key Players:

*Daniel Bard: The Red Sox have had problems getting the lead to closer Jonathon Papelbon. Since manager Terry Francona has trusted Bard with the 8th inning, things have gone smoother. The hard-throwing rookie can regularly touch 100 mph and could become a household name this postseason. However, his wildness will determine how long Francona will leave him in before going to Papelbon for more than 3 outs. Down the stretch, Bard has struggled, giving up 4 runs in just 6.2 innings with 4 walks and 6 Ks. Francona will rely on the 6’4 righty from the University of North Carolina with the game on the line.

*Rocco Baldelli: (if he’s healthy and on the roster) Baldelli has been playing most of the season against left-handed pitching. With lefties Kazmir (his former teammate) and Saunders scheduled to pitch games 3 and 4, Baldelli could have a huge impact. Baldelli hit .290 against lefties, with 4 HR and 15 RBI.

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