Tigers -Twins Race is ON
There is only one race left in the American League for the final playoff spot and it comes from the Central division. The Detroit Tigers have been in first place for most of the season, yet they find themselves fighting to fend off the streaking Minnesota Twins (the Tigers are 2 games up with 7 to go). The Twins have won 8 of the last ten, while the Tigers have gone 5-5 in their last ten. Both teams are very good at home, which bodes well for the Tigers because their last 7 are at home, while the Twins play at Detroit for 4. This year’s Tigers team reminds me of 2006 when they lost the division on the final day of the regular season to the Twins, though they went to the World Series as the wild card. This year, the Tigers need to win the division because the Boston Red Sox have the wild card just about locked up.
The series to watch is the 4-game set in Detroit, where the Twins enter Comerica Park to try and overtake the Tigers. The first 2 games of the series will be broadcast live on the MLB Network @ 7pm EST. Wednesday’s game will be broadcast live on ESPN @ 7pm EST.
Pitching Matchups:
Monday 9/28: Nick Blackburn @ Rick Porcello
1-1, 5.11 ERA (2S) 1-2, 3.71 ERA (3S)
vs. Tigers in 2009 vs. Twins in 2009
Tuesday 9/29: Brian Duensing @ Justin Verlander
1-0, 0.61 ERA (1S) 0-2, 5.49 ERA (3S)
vs. Tigers in 2009 vs. Twins in 2009
Wednesday 9/30: Carl Pavano @ Eddie Bonine
4-0, 1.88 ERA (5S) no starts vs. Twins
vs. Tigers in 2009
Thursday 10/1: Scott Baker @ Nate Robertson
0-1, 9.00 ERA (3S) 1-0, 3.60 ERA (1S)
vs. Tigers in 2009 vs. Twins in 2009
The Tigers have stayed in first place with pitching and defense, and lately a little luck (the Twins have lost when the Tigers have lost). The starting rotation has been carried all year by ace Justin Verlander, offseason acquisition Edwin Jackson, and 20-year old rookie Rick Porcello. All three have struggled a bit, allowing the Twins to get back in the race. Injured Tigers starter Jarrod Washburn has been a bust since coming over from Seattle and his injury has led to Eddie Bonine being inserted into the starting rotation. The bullpen has also been inconsistent at times; sometimes lights-out, other times they can’t get an out. Closer Fernando Rodney is an example of the inconsistencies: he is dominant with an upper-90s fastball and a changeup, but sometimes is wild with the fastball which leads to walks and blown saves. Despite the climbing unemployment rate in Michigan, the Tigers still average more fans than half of the teams in MLB. The Tigers would love to treat their fans to playoff baseball.
Tigers Keys to the Series:
The middle of the order: (Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Carbrera, Aubrey Huff, and Carlos Guillen). Cabrera has been the force in the Tigers lineup all season, but can the other 3 around him step up? Huff has been disappointing since coming over from the Orioles and Guillen’s finally starting to get comfortable at the plate after coming back from shoulder problems. Ordonez hasn’t hit for power all year, but is starting to heat up at the plate. In a 12-5 win against the Chicago White Sox, the 3-4-5-6 hitters went 9-for-18 with 6 RBIs. However, in a 2-0 loss the White Sox, the same hitters went 2-for-13 with 8 men left on base. If all 4 can put it all together, they can carry the Tigers into the postseason. If they don’t hit and drive in runs, there will be more pressure on the pitching staff and the Tigers will lose.
The Bullpen: (Closer-Rodney, Setup-Brandon Lyon, Lefty-Bobby Seay, Long men-Zach Minor, Armando Gallaraga, and the rest: Ryan Perry, Alferdo Figaro, Jeremy Bonderman, Casey Fien, and Fu-Te Ni).The bullpen will need to be huge, especially in games three and four of the series. Bonine and Robertson have been giving all they have, but it’s not expected for them to go deep into the game. The bullpen will need to give Jim Leyland big innings if they want to win the series.
The Twins have been coming on strong, despite the loss of All-Star slugger Justin Morneau, proving they are more than just the M&M boys (Mauer & Morneau). The Twins need to win this 4-game series to be tied with the Tigers heading into the final series against the Royals to close down the Metrodome. What a send-off for the greatest home-field advantage if the Twins could make the playoffs.
Twins Keys to the Series:
Leadoff hitter Denard Span: Span has raised his average to .312 down the stretch and his on-base percentage is close to .400. With Span on the bases and running, it will put pressure on the Tigers pitching and defense when Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel come to the plate. Span is also a highlight reel for his great defense in the outfield. At the plate and in the field, Span can change the course of the game and series.
The Bullpen: (Closer-Joe Nathan, Setup-Jose Mijares, Lefty-Ron Mahay, Long man- Jeff Manship, and the rest: Jon Rauch, Bobby Keppel, Jesse Crain, and Matt Guerrier). The bullpen has become a strength late in the year, especially closer Nathan (1 run allowed in last 10 outings, 13K, 9SV) and setup man Jose Mijares (1 run allowed in last 10 outings, 8 K, 27 holds). The Twins also bolstered their bullpen by adding veterans Mahay and Rauch. The rotation hasn’t been as strong as of late, so the bullpen will have to continue to be the stabilizing force to beat the Tigers. The Twins offense does not score a lot of runs, so the bullpen will have to keep the game manageable to come back or save the game for the starters.
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